Trucking Jobs Continue Downward Trend in October

Well, trucking buddies, here’s the latest scoop on the job front. In October, trucking jobs took a bit of a tumble, marking the fifth loss for the year, which isn’t exactly stellar news. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that we waved goodbye to 5,000 trucking jobs last month.

But hold your horses; there’s more to this story. While seasonally adjusted numbers might show a loss, the non-seasonally adjusted figures reveal that trucking employment was, well, flat. No big ups or downs. That could mean that carriers who usually gear up for the retail peak season or other seasonal demand, like Christmas trees (ho, ho, ho), might’ve decided to play it cool this time around and rely on their existing staff.

David Spencer, the vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, sees some stability in these numbers. He suggests that if the seasonal demand surprises us and goes above expectations, we might see more rate fluctuations due to a tighter supply side.

Now, let’s not sugarcoat things. Spencer predicts this downward trend will tag along into 2024. You see, back when rates were high in the spot market, tons of drivers joined the party. And now, it’s all about finding that balance before we see some major improvements.

Revised numbers also played a little peekaboo. September had an increase of over 13,000 trucking jobs (compared to the initial gain of 8,800), while August saw a decrease of nearly 31,000 jobs (initially reported as a loss of 25,200).

Year to date, we’re down by 28,500 trucking jobs. Now, compare that to last year, where we saw an increase of almost 61,000.

When we consider all transportation jobs, employment has dipped by over 12,000 jobs this year. And this isn’t the first time we’ve seen a dip. Since the pandemic hit, it’s happened twice before, in April 2021 and November 2022.

The warehouse and storage sector had the steepest drop in October, losing 11,400 jobs, followed by trucking and support activities for transportation, which said goodbye to 1,400 jobs. But not everyone was feeling the blues; three subsectors saw an increase: air transport (3,500), couriers/messengers (2,600), and water transportation (1,200).

Wages had some ups and downs too. In October, weekly earnings for all employees in the transportation and warehousing sector jumped by $1.64, landing at $1,129.96. Compared to the same time last year, hourly earnings went from $28.14 to $29.58. If you’re a production and nonsupervisory employee, your average weekly earnings went up by $1.90, reaching $1,064.46. Not too shabby when you compare it to last year’s $28.31.

Overall, the job market added 150,000 new jobs across the board. And let’s not forget that the unemployment rate tiptoed up a bit to 3.9%. For folks in transportation and material moving gigs, the unemployment rate nudged up to 5.3% from 4.7% the previous year.

And here’s a little tidbit from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: the consumer price index has been on the rise, jumping 3.7% over the past year. In September, it edged up by 0.4%, and the main culprits were shelter, gasoline, and food. The index for everything minus food and energy went up by 0.3%, making it 4.1% more expensive than it was a year ago.

So, there you have it, a glimpse into the trucking job scene and some economic insights for you. Stay tuned for more updates right here at Mercer Transportation!